By Andrea Januta
(Reuters) -There is now a 40% chance that global temperatures will temporarily rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over the next five years – and those probabilities are increasing, a UN report said on Wednesday .
This does not yet mean that the world would already cross the long-term 1.5 degree warming threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement, which scientists say is the ceiling to avoid the most catastrophic effects of the world. climate change. The Paris Agreement target is for temperature over a 30-year average, rather than a single year.
But it underscores that “we are measurably and inexorably approaching” that threshold, United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. Taalas described the study https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/WMO_GADCU_2020.pdf as “another red flag” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the study, each year from 2021 to 2025 will likely be at least 1 degree Celsius warmer.
The report also predicts a 90% chance that at least one of those years will become the hottest year on record, beating 2016 temperatures.
In 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial benchmark, according to an April WMO report https: // public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate / wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate.
“There’s a bit of a rise and fall in annual temperatures,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. “But these long-term trends are relentless.”
“It seems inevitable that we’re going to cross these borders,” Schmidt said, “and that’s because there are delays in the system, there is inertia in the system, and we don’t really reduced global emissions because again. “
Almost all regions are likely to be warmer over the next five years than in the recent past, WMO said.
WMO uses temperature data from multiple sources, including NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The weather that was once unusual is now becoming typical. Earlier this month, for example, NOAA released its “Updated Climate Standards https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-us-climate-normals-are-here-what-do-they -tell-us-about- Climate-change ”, which provide basic data on temperature and other climate measurements in the United States. The normal news – updated every 10 years – has shown that the reference temperatures in the United States are extremely high compared to the last decade.
Temperature changes occur both on average and at extreme temperatures, said Russell Vose, head of the climate analysis and synthesis branch at NOAA’s National Environmental Information Centers. Over the next five years, these extremes are “more likely to be what people will notice and remember,” he said.
Warming temperatures are also affecting regional and global precipitation. As temperatures rise, evaporation rates increase and warmer air can hold more moisture. Climate change can also alter circulation patterns in the atmosphere and the ocean. (Global warming graph) https://tmsnrt.rs/3wcycMk
The WMO report predicts an increased likelihood of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, that the Sahel and Australia in Africa will likely be wetter, and southwestern North America will likely be drier.
The projections are part of a recent WMO effort to provide shorter-range forecasts of temperature, precipitation and wind patterns, to help countries keep tabs on how the change climate can disrupt weather patterns.
Looking at marine and land heat waves, melting ice caps, increasing heat content of the oceans and migrating species to cooler places, “it’s more than temperature,” said Vose. “There are other changes in the atmosphere and in the ocean, in the ice and in the biosphere that all point to a warming world.”
(Reporting by Andrea Januta in New York; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)