The “law” of supply and demand is actually an ideal academic “model” that only works in a prescribed universe in which demand and supply have no limits. In the real world, the model fails when applied to this planet’s limited supply of natural resources.
Example: The demand for lithium expressed as the quantity of this natural resource needed to accomplish the transformation of the automotive transportation industry from the use of fossil fuels for motive power through internal combustion engines (ICEs) to electric motors powered by storage battery (BEV). ) is not possible, due to the limits of the separation of lithium from the earth’s lithosphere (crust) by artificial operations that are economically acceptable for our civilization. The so-called green new deal is ridiculously expensive; it would require that we all focus on destroying the society that cheap energy has bestowed on the world and makes it impossible to continue the current widely shared consumer-driven economies, and shut down any additions to Africa’s consumer economies, from most of India and South America. The dumbest green assumption is that there is an infinite amount of money to be used to achieve an unlimited supply of resources that would be needed to meet their mandated demands to make the global energy economy “green”.
The only way an EV “transformation” could take place with the resources available to us would be if the current motive power of the internal combustion engine of land and sea transport were replaced by a hybrid system of combined internal combustion and electric power. battery operated. This would conserve both types of motive fuels, fossil-based for internal combustion and stored electricity produced by fossil, nuclear and alternative fuels (wind, solar and hydro), using them in the most efficient way. The idealization of personal transportation would also require the end of consumer choice and its replacement with durable, basic, easy to maintain and repair, recyclable, and long-lived vehicles. This was in fact the “ideal” that Soviet Russian Communism was supposed to achieve. It did not work although it was mandated by the state and practiced throughout the Soviet empire. It was only maintained by decree and fear. As soon as the Soviet experiment failed, Western cars focused on consumer choice quickly replaced the boring, inefficient, poorly designed and manufactured Yugos, Trabants, Ladas and Dacias of the Soviet communist experiment.
Over the past twenty-five years, the Communist Party of China has embarked on a reshaped approach to achieving communism, which has resulted in a system based on the primary use of market capitalism to provide choices to improve quickly the lifestyles and standard of living of the Chinese people. be followed by a leveling of income inequality that inevitably follows when substantial private ownership of the means of production is allowed, reaffirming the right of the state to control the markets for the products that capitalism has shown the people want as a measure of a happy life.
The Chinese model of using capitalism with Chinese characteristics to establish socialism with Chinese characteristics to create a society based on communism with Chinese characteristics is a work in progress.
Western thinkers believe that the intentionally chaotic system of modified free-market capitalism used in the United States and Europe by their majority Republican, democratically elected governments is the “ideal model”.
Chinese leaders, elected by only a minority of the population, members of the Chinese Communist Party, believe that their state-run economy with Chinese characteristics is the right model for the development of a Chinese communist state, and express their beliefs into long-term mandated planning for industrial policies.
The Chinese don’t seem to want to bring Chinese-style Marxism to the world, by force anyway, as the Soviets did. They are turning their own nation into a closed system by using the outside world only to perfect and maintain this closed system.
It remains to be seen whether the Western model of innovating through disruptive technologies will endure in the face of a new green deal that will exacerbate inequality and destroy the middle class that has enabled modern Americans to enjoy the highest standard of living in the world. ‘story.
I believe that chaotic disruption of the OEM auto industry based on a false premise of an infinite supply of resources to meet mandatory demand will fail and could lead to an accelerated decline in lifestyle, quality of life and level American life.
What purpose? Oh yes. To save the world.
As an infamous American officer said during a meaningless war, “We had to destroy the village to save it.”
In the short term, buy the hard-to-produce metals for batteries and electric motors, primarily lithium and rare earths, and the companies that have found accessible deposits for each of them. Even if I’m wrong and there is an EV transformation, it will take a very long time, and for many years it will require more lithium and rare earths per year than ever before.
Finally, be on the lookout for new and newly applied process technologies that are economically efficient. It’s the only thing that could get us through the next grade deflation, because the best deposits are highly graded.